Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Twelve returning starters, a strongly positive transfer exchange and Willie Fritz's development record support upside.
MPR #28Projected Wins #19Big 12 MPR #5Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating11.4National #28
Projected Wins8.93National #19
Schedule Strength#58National SOS rank
Projected Offense32.0Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense22.7Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+9.3Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR11.69 → 11.35-0.33 MPR
Rank#28 → #28+0 spots
Projected Wins9.37 → 8.93Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to Utah 13–21. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -0.3 points; unit inputs are retained.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
6
7
8
9
10
The gold bar is the current mode (9 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total8.5
Preseason Effective Market8.18
Current Win-Total Gap+0.75
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 11.35 = OFF 32.11 − DEF 22.23 + ST 0.07 + legacy residual -0.05 + season adjustment 1.45. Sigma 1.70.
