Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Scheme continuity improves in Year 2, but limited returning starters and an unproven quarterback lower the median.
MPR #64Projected Wins #82Big 12 MPR #14Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating0.6National #64
Projected Wins6.02National #82
Schedule Strength#39National SOS rank
Projected Offense20.9Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense32.2Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-11.3Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-0.83 → 0.59+1.42 MPR
Rank#71 → #64+7 spots
Projected Wins5.09 → 6.02Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat TCU 24–20. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +1.4 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest West Virginia news.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
5
6
7
8
9
The gold bar is the current mode (6 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total5.5
Preseason Effective Market5.85
Current Win-Total Gap+0.17
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 0.59 = OFF 26.46 − DEF 25.54 + ST -0.02 + legacy residual 0.00 + season adjustment -0.31. Sigma 3.03.
