Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Multi-year Power Four quarterback and continuity raise the floor; defensive NFL losses keep the adjustment modest.
MPR #22Projected Wins #21Big 12 MPR #4Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating13.2National #22
Projected Wins8.84National #21
Schedule Strength#59National SOS rank
Projected Offense27.6Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense25.0Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+2.6Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR11.96 → 13.15+1.20 MPR
Rank#25 → #22+3 spots
Projected Wins8.45 → 8.84Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat Iowa State 39–3. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +1.2 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
6
7
8
9
10
11
The gold bar is the current mode (9 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total7.5
Preseason Effective Market7.37
Current Win-Total Gap+1.47
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 13.15 = OFF 31.72 − DEF 20.40 + ST -0.37 + legacy residual -0.05 + season adjustment 2.25. Sigma 1.75.
