Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Strong transfer class and offensive coaching partly offset only two returning starters and quarterback turnover.
MPR #52Projected Wins #83Big 12 MPR #9Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating5.0National #52
Projected Wins6.02National #83
Schedule Strength#34National SOS rank
Projected Offense23.0Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense27.0Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-4.0Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR3.85 → 5.05+1.19 MPR
Rank#54 → #52+2 spots
Projected Wins5.36 → 6.02Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat Kansas State 28–17. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +1.2 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest Arizona State news.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
4
5
6
7
8
9
The gold bar is the current mode (6 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total6.5
Preseason Effective Market6.50
Current Win-Total Gap-0.48
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 5.05 = OFF 28.02 − DEF 21.44 + ST -0.58 + legacy residual -0.30 + season adjustment -0.65. Sigma 3.33.
