Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Lance Leipold remains a positive, but quarterback uncertainty and a road-heavy league schedule materially lower the floor.
MPR #58Projected Wins #103Big 12 MPR #13Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating2.8National #58
Projected Wins4.79National #103
Schedule Strength#60National SOS rank
Projected Offense23.7Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense29.5Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-5.8Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR2.67 → 2.78+0.11 MPR
Rank#57 → #58-1 spots
Projected Wins4.31 → 4.79Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat Baylor 25–24. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +0.1 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
3
4
5
6
7
8
The gold bar is the current mode (5 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total5.5
Preseason Effective Market5.82
Current Win-Total Gap-1.02
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 2.78 = OFF 28.30 − DEF 26.43 + ST 0.58 + legacy residual 0.05 + season adjustment 0.28. Sigma 2.96.
