Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Marcel Reed and a strongly positive transfer exchange support the roster; the schedule's road concentration limits the win total.
MPR #11Projected Wins #75SEC MPR #5Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating18.9National #11
Projected Wins6.16National #75
Schedule Strength#15National SOS rank
Projected Offense27.4Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense25.9Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+1.5Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR19.34 → 18.90-0.44 MPR
Rank#11 → #11+0 spots
Projected Wins6.58 → 6.16Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to Alabama 20–31. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -0.4 points; unit inputs are retained.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
4
5
6
7
8
The gold bar is the current mode (6 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total8.5
Preseason Effective Market8.42
Current Win-Total Gap-2.26
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 18.90 = OFF 37.35 − DEF 17.25 + ST -0.30 + legacy residual 0.10 + season adjustment -1.00. Sigma 2.20.
