Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Will Stein's quarterback-development history helps Kenny Minchey, but only four starters return and depth remains a concern.
MPR #39Projected Wins #23SEC MPR #13Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating8.7National #39
Projected Wins8.46National #23
Schedule Strength#4National SOS rank
Projected Offense22.2Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense27.5Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-5.3Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR7.89 → 8.69+0.81 MPR
Rank#40 → #39+1 spots
Projected Wins8.00 → 8.46Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat Vanderbilt 34–17. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +0.8 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest Kentucky news.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
7
8
9
10
11
The gold bar is the current mode (8 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total4.5
Preseason Effective Market4.76
Current Win-Total Gap+3.70
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 8.69 = OFF 25.85 − DEF 21.65 + ST -0.00 + legacy residual 0.25 + season adjustment 4.24. Sigma 3.34.
