Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Jeff Brohm and the ACC's second-ranked portal class reload the roster; an unproven quarterback keeps the confidence below the top tier.
MPR #27Projected Wins #50ACC MPR #2Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating11.8National #27
Projected Wins7.42National #50
Schedule Strength#42National SOS rank
Projected Offense29.1Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense21.2Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+7.9Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR11.82 → 11.84+0.02 MPR
Rank#26 → #27-1 spots
Projected Wins7.39 → 7.42Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Week 8 bye. The joint season fit moves power +0.0 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
4
5
6
7
8
9
The gold bar is the current mode (8 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total8.5
Preseason Effective Market8.19
Current Win-Total Gap-0.77
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 11.84 = OFF 31.15 − DEF 20.25 + ST 0.10 + legacy residual 0.15 + season adjustment 0.69. Sigma 2.91.
