Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Brent Key's development record remains a positive, but an inexperienced projected quarterback and Tennessee-Georgia nonconference pair create downside.
MPR #57Projected Wins #127ACC MPR #12Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating2.8National #57
Projected Wins3.39National #127
Schedule Strength#28National SOS rank
Projected Offense20.3Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense30.7Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-10.4Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR3.86 → 2.80-1.06 MPR
Rank#53 → #57-4 spots
Projected Wins4.13 → 3.39Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to Boston College 27–49. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -1.1 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
2
3
4
5
6
The gold bar is the current mode (3 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total6.5
Preseason Effective Market6.36
Current Win-Total Gap-2.97
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 2.80 = OFF 28.45 − DEF 24.05 + ST 0.60 + legacy residual -0.05 + season adjustment -2.15. Sigma 3.15.
