Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Walker Eget brings experience, but modest returning production and a low-rated portal class leave the defense and depth vulnerable.
MPR #45Projected Wins #53ACC MPR #8Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating6.2National #45
Projected Wins7.10National #53
Schedule Strength#48National SOS rank
Projected Offense25.7Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense29.7Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-4.1Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR6.11 → 6.19+0.08 MPR
Rank#45 → #45+0 spots
Projected Wins7.08 → 7.10Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat Virginia 19–16. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +0.1 points; unit inputs are retained.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
5
6
7
8
9
10
The gold bar is the current mode (7 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total5.5
Preseason Effective Market5.66
Current Win-Total Gap+1.44
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 6.19 = OFF 32.95 − DEF 27.20 + ST 0.40 + legacy residual 0.30 + season adjustment -0.26. Sigma 2.40.
