Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Will Hall, an experienced quarterback competition and a manageable conference schedule keep Tulane near the top despite significant roster turnover.
MPR #90Projected Wins #77American MPR #7Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-5.9National #90
Projected Wins6.14National #77
Schedule Strength#89National SOS rank
Projected Offense29.3Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense23.3Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+6.0Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-4.44 → -5.85-1.41 MPR
Rank#84 → #90-6 spots
Projected Wins6.82 → 6.14Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to UTSA 19–42. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -1.4 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest Tulane news.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
3
4
5
6
7
8
The gold bar is the current mode (6 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total7.5
Preseason Effective Market7.24
Current Win-Total Gap-1.10
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -5.85 = OFF 22.30 − DEF 28.20 + ST 0.60 + legacy residual 0.15 + season adjustment -0.70. Sigma 3.29.
