Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Tayven Jackson and Neal Brown offer a credible offensive reset, but zero returning starters create the conference's most extreme integration challenge.
MPR #95Projected Wins #43American MPR #9Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-7.4National #95
Projected Wins7.73National #43
Schedule Strength#85National SOS rank
Projected Offense30.3Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense28.4Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+1.9Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-8.49 → -7.39+1.10 MPR
Rank#100 → #95+5 spots
Projected Wins6.85 → 7.73Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat Navy 49–39. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +1.1 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
5
6
7
8
9
10
The gold bar is the current mode (8 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total5.5
Preseason Effective Market5.65
Current Win-Total Gap+2.08
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -7.39 = OFF 25.25 − DEF 34.10 + ST -0.20 + legacy residual 0.45 + season adjustment 1.21. Sigma 3.32.
