Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Nine returning starters, 77% snapback and Baylor Hayes give Tulsa one of the league's clearest continuity advantages.
MPR #92Projected Wins #71American MPR #8Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-6.8National #92
Projected Wins6.25National #71
Schedule Strength#100National SOS rank
Projected Offense30.6Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense26.0Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+4.6Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-6.71 → -6.83-0.12 MPR
Rank#92 → #92+0 spots
Projected Wins6.67 → 6.25Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to Army 35–38. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -0.1 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest Tulsa news.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
4
5
6
7
8
The gold bar is the current mode (6 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total5.5
Preseason Effective Market5.46
Current Win-Total Gap+0.79
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -6.83 = OFF 23.95 − DEF 30.95 + ST 0.60 + legacy residual 0.15 + season adjustment -0.58. Sigma 2.54.
