Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Tim Albin should improve the program, but the quarterback injury recovery, a rebuilt offensive line and last year's extreme defensive inefficiency make the range wide.
MPR #138Projected Wins #137American MPR #14Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-31.5National #138
Projected Wins1.31National #137
Schedule Strength#80National SOS rank
Projected Offense15.3Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense38.9Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-23.6Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-31.51 → -31.55-0.04 MPR
Rank#138 → #138+0 spots
Projected Wins1.29 → 1.31Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Week 8 bye. The joint season fit moves power -0.0 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
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The gold bar is the current mode (1 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total2.5
Preseason Effective Market2.36
Current Win-Total Gap-1.05
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -31.55 = OFF 11.75 − DEF 42.10 + ST -0.50 + legacy residual -0.05 + season adjustment -0.65. Sigma 3.29.
