Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Nine returning starters and K.C. Keeler's program development support a move toward bowl contention; quarterback inexperience remains the central risk.
MPR #106Projected Wins #114American MPR #11Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-9.6National #106
Projected Wins4.23National #114
Schedule Strength#88National SOS rank
Projected Offense27.4Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense29.6Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-2.2Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-9.73 → -9.57+0.16 MPR
Rank#105 → #106-1 spots
Projected Wins4.21 → 4.23Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Week 8 bye. The joint season fit moves power +0.2 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest Temple news.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
2
3
4
5
6
7
The gold bar is the current mode (4 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total5.5
Preseason Effective Market5.50
Current Win-Total Gap-1.27
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -9.57 = OFF 25.05 − DEF 33.55 + ST 0.40 + legacy residual 0.20 + season adjustment -1.67. Sigma 3.15.
