Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: A veteran transfer quarterback and modest portal gain help, but only seven starters return and the defensive coordinator changes.
MPR #38Projected Wins #69Big Ten MPR #12Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating8.7National #38
Projected Wins6.34National #69
Schedule Strength#27National SOS rank
Projected Offense25.4Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense26.6Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-1.2Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR7.22 → 8.74+1.51 MPR
Rank#42 → #38+4 spots
Projected Wins5.30 → 6.34Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat Oregon 21–10. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +1.5 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
4
5
6
7
8
9
The gold bar is the current mode (6 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total7.5
Preseason Effective Market7.16
Current Win-Total Gap-0.82
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 8.74 = OFF 31.42 − DEF 22.90 + ST 0.53 + legacy residual -0.20 + season adjustment -0.11. Sigma 2.30.
