Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Reasonable continuity and Chip Kelly's offensive value help, but the portal class is near neutral and the schedule is difficult.
MPR #37Projected Wins #44Big Ten MPR #11Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating9.0National #37
Projected Wins7.70National #44
Schedule Strength#23National SOS rank
Projected Offense19.3Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense27.5Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-8.2Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR7.80 → 8.99+1.19 MPR
Rank#41 → #37+4 spots
Projected Wins7.32 → 7.70Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat Rutgers 42–14. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +1.2 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest Northwestern news.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
6
7
8
9
10
11
The gold bar is the current mode (8 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total5.5
Preseason Effective Market5.34
Current Win-Total Gap+2.36
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 8.99 = OFF 25.35 − DEF 19.30 + ST 0.55 + legacy residual -0.05 + season adjustment 2.44. Sigma 1.63.
