Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Billy Edwards provides experience and the defense has improvement potential, but low returning production and a four-game Power Four nonconference slate limit the floor.
MPR #48Projected Wins #70ACC MPR #11Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating5.9National #48
Projected Wins6.29National #70
Schedule Strength#33National SOS rank
Projected Offense23.0Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense25.0Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-2.0Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR6.88 → 5.87-1.01 MPR
Rank#43 → #48-5 spots
Projected Wins7.10 → 6.29Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to Syracuse 30–31. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -1.0 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest North Carolina news.
Publisher headlines · auto-updating
Loading team headlines…
Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
4
5
6
7
8
9
The gold bar is the current mode (6 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total4.5
Preseason Effective Market4.66
Current Win-Total Gap+1.64
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 5.87 = OFF 24.55 − DEF 21.00 + ST 0.40 + legacy residual 1.55 + season adjustment 0.37. Sigma 2.90.
