Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: The defense returns useful experience, but low-confidence quarterback projection and Notre Dame close the schedule with substantial offensive uncertainty.
MPR #72Projected Wins #113ACC MPR #16Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-0.4National #72
Projected Wins4.31National #113
Schedule Strength#40National SOS rank
Projected Offense19.8Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense30.6Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-10.8Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-1.03 → -0.42+0.61 MPR
Rank#76 → #72+4 spots
Projected Wins3.56 → 4.31Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat North Carolina 31–30. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +0.6 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
3
4
5
6
7
The gold bar is the current mode (4 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total4.5
Preseason Effective Market4.36
Current Win-Total Gap-0.06
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -0.42 = OFF 23.60 − DEF 24.90 + ST 0.40 + legacy residual 0.10 + season adjustment 0.38. Sigma 2.93.
