Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Kevin Jennings, Rhett Lashlee and strong offensive continuity support a high floor, while road games at Florida State, Louisville and Notre Dame limit the top end.
MPR #29Projected Wins #20ACC MPR #3Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating11.3National #29
Projected Wins8.90National #20
Schedule Strength#54National SOS rank
Projected Offense27.4Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense24.6Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+2.8Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR9.74 → 11.27+1.53 MPR
Rank#32 → #29+3 spots
Projected Wins8.55 → 8.90Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat California 59–20. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +1.5 points; unit inputs are retained.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
6
7
8
9
10
11
The gold bar is the current mode (9 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total8.5
Preseason Effective Market8.61
Current Win-Total Gap+0.29
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 11.27 = OFF 33.15 − DEF 20.60 + ST -0.30 + legacy residual 0.15 + season adjustment -1.13. Sigma 1.92.
