Matrix Power Rating-18.5National #126
Projected Wins3.42National #127
Schedule Strength#87National SOS rank
Projected Offense20.9Points per game
Projected Defense32.8Points allowed
Point Differential-11.8Projected per game
Current Context
Reviewed StateWhat Changed
No Week 0 game has been played for this team. Current MPR and projected wins remain the approved preseason team state entering Week 1.
Week 0 ResultNo game
MPR-18.5 → -18.5
Projected Wins3.42 → 3.42
Model update note
No new game evidence has entered the team update gate yet.
Outcome Range
Season Distribution
The detailed record distribution remains the certified preseason baseline until the full game-by-game probability cascade is refreshed.
Preseason Outcome ShapeBaseline distribution
The gold bar is the baseline mode (3 wins). This component is explicitly separated from the current headline state and will switch to the refreshed distribution when the full probability cascade is updated.
Season Market Context · 2026-08-08
Preseason Comparison LayerMarket context stays separate from MPR and projected wins. This snapshot is retained as comparison context and does not define team strength.
Posted Total4.5
Effective Market4.18
Adjusted Edge-0.76
SignalReview
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Remaining game rows preserve the approved preseason game-level projection baseline until the next full schedule-probability cascade.
DateOpponentWin %Score / ResultMarginTotalConfidenceType
SEP 12LLindenwoodHome · Nonconference — FCS44%Win %25–27Baseline score-2.2Margin51.7TotalLowFCS/Other ProxyOpponent
OCT 8WKWestern KentuckyAway · Conference USA14%Win %19–35Baseline score-16.3Margin54.3TotalLowFBSOpponent
OCT 14KSKennesaw StateHome · Conference USA31%Win %22–29Baseline score-7.3Margin51.5TotalLowFBSOpponent
OCT 27SHSam HoustonHome · Conference USA74%Win %31–22Baseline score+9.5Margin53.1TotalLowFBSOpponent
NOV 7FIFlorida InternationalAway · Conference USA31%Win %23–31Baseline score-7.5Margin54.3TotalLowFBSOpponent
NOV 14NMNew Mexico StateHome · Conference USA50%Win %25–26Baseline score-0.2Margin50.9TotalLowFBSOpponent
NOV 21JSJacksonville StateAway · Conference USA18%Win %20–34Baseline score-13.8Margin54.5TotalMediumFBSOpponent
Data-vintage safeguard: current MPR and projected wins above are the approved Week 1 team-state values. Detailed distribution and remaining schedule probabilities are explicitly labeled as baseline where the full probability cascade has not yet been refreshed.