Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Seven starters return, but a new staff and an unresolved quarterback competition create substantial integration uncertainty.
MPR #125Projected Wins #124Conference USA MPR #8Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-19.3National #125
Projected Wins3.72National #124
Schedule Strength#93National SOS rank
Projected Offense23.4Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense30.2Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-6.8Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-17.90 → -19.29-1.39 MPR
Rank#125 → #125+0 spots
Projected Wins3.85 → 3.72Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to Delaware 38–61. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -1.4 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
2
3
4
5
6
7
The gold bar is the current mode (4 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total4.5
Preseason Effective Market4.18
Current Win-Total Gap-0.45
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -19.29 = OFF 17.05 − DEF 34.80 + ST -0.50 + legacy residual -0.00 + season adjustment -1.04. Sigma 3.49.
