Matrix Power Rating-4.5National #85
Projected Wins7.43National #44
Schedule Strength#101National SOS rank
Projected Offense29.2Points per game
Projected Defense25.8Points allowed
Point Differential+3.4Projected per game
Current Context
Reviewed StateWhat Changed
No Week 0 game has been played for this team. Current MPR and projected wins remain the approved preseason team state entering Week 1.
Week 0 ResultNo game
MPR-4.5 → -4.5
Projected Wins7.43 → 7.43
Model update note
No new game evidence has entered the team update gate yet.
Outcome Range
Season Distribution
The detailed record distribution remains the certified preseason baseline until the full game-by-game probability cascade is refreshed.
Preseason Outcome ShapeBaseline distribution
The gold bar is the baseline mode (8 wins). This component is explicitly separated from the current headline state and will switch to the refreshed distribution when the full probability cascade is updated.
Season Market Context · 2026-08-08
Preseason Comparison LayerMarket context stays separate from MPR and projected wins. This snapshot is retained as comparison context and does not define team strength.
Posted Total7.5
Effective Market7.24
Adjusted Edge+0.19
SignalNo Edge
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Remaining game rows preserve the approved preseason game-level projection baseline until the next full schedule-probability cascade.
DateOpponentWin %Score / ResultMarginTotalConfidenceType
SEP 26MMercyhurstHome · Nonconference — FCS91%Win %37–17Baseline score+19.9Margin54.4TotalLowFCS/Other ProxyOpponent
OCT 1NMNew Mexico StateAway · Conference USA71%Win %31–23Baseline score+8.5Margin53.6TotalMediumFBSOpponent
OCT 8MSMissouri StateHome · Conference USA86%Win %35–19Baseline score+16.3Margin54.3TotalLowFBSOpponent
OCT 14SHSam HoustonAway · Conference USA90%Win %37–18Baseline score+19.1Margin55.8TotalMediumFBSOpponent
NOV 7MTMiddle TennesseeAway · Conference USA90%Win %37–18Baseline score+19.1Margin55.5TotalMediumFBSOpponent
NOV 14JSJacksonville StateHome · Conference USA63%Win %31–26Baseline score+5.0Margin57.3TotalMediumFBSOpponent
NOV 28KSKennesaw StateHome · Conference USA66%Win %30–24Baseline score+6.3Margin54.2TotalMediumFBSOpponent
Data-vintage safeguard: current MPR and projected wins above are the approved Week 1 team-state values. Detailed distribution and remaining schedule probabilities are explicitly labeled as baseline where the full probability cascade has not yet been refreshed.