Matrix Power Rating-9.1National #106
Projected Wins6.80National #60
Schedule Strength#130National SOS rank
Projected Offense30.5Points per game
Projected Defense24.5Points allowed
Point Differential+5.9Projected per game
Current Context
Certified UpdateWhat Changed
The Week 0 result cleared the model-update gate. The adjustment is reflected in the current MPR, national rank and projected-wins figures above.
Week 0 ResultL 7–33
MPR-7.1 → -9.1
Projected Wins7.57 → 6.80
Model update note
No scoring after Q1; offense below prior. Guardrail: Separate opponent strength from own weakness.
Outcome Range
Season Distribution
The current headline projection is post-Week-0. The detailed record distribution remains the certified preseason baseline until the full game-by-game probability cascade is refreshed.
Preseason Outcome ShapeBaseline distribution
The gold bar is the baseline mode (8 wins). This component is explicitly separated from the current headline state and will switch to the refreshed distribution when the full probability cascade is updated.
Season Market Context · 2026-08-08
Preseason Comparison LayerMarket context stays separate from MPR and projected wins. This snapshot is retained as comparison context and does not define team strength.
Posted Total7.5
Effective Market7.36
Adjusted Edge+0.21
SignalNo Edge
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Week 0 is final. Remaining game rows preserve the approved preseason game-level projection baseline until the next full schedule-probability cascade.
DateOpponentWin %Score / ResultMarginTotalConfidenceType
AUG 29NDNorth Dakota StateAway · FINALLResult7–33Pre-game model 22–32—Win %—TotalFinal-26Actual margin
SEP 5EKEastern KentuckyHome · Nonconference — FCS59%Win %29–26Baseline score+3.3Margin54.7TotalMediumFCS/Other ProxyOpponent
SEP 19GSGeorgia SouthernHome · Nonconference59%Win %30–27Baseline score+3.8Margin56.6TotalLowFBSOpponent
SEP 26MTMiddle TennesseeHome · Conference USA92%Win %38–17Baseline score+21.3Margin55.7TotalMediumFBSOpponent
OCT 7KSKennesaw StateAway · Conference USA47%Win %27–28Baseline score-1.0Margin54.4TotalLowFBSOpponent
OCT 13FIFlorida InternationalHome · Conference USA72%Win %33–24Baseline score+8.8Margin57.3TotalMediumFBSOpponent
OCT 28NMNew Mexico StateAway · Conference USA66%Win %30–24Baseline score+6.3Margin53.8TotalMediumFBSOpponent
NOV 7SHSam HoustonHome · Conference USA93%Win %39–17Baseline score+21.7Margin56.1TotalMediumFBSOpponent
NOV 14WKWestern KentuckyAway · Conference USA37%Win %26–31Baseline score-5.0Margin57.3TotalMediumFBSOpponent
NOV 21MSMissouri StateHome · Conference USA82%Win %34–20Baseline score+13.8Margin54.5TotalMediumFBSOpponent
Data-vintage safeguard: current MPR and projected wins above are the approved Week 1 team-state values. Detailed distribution and remaining schedule probabilities are explicitly labeled as baseline where the full probability cascade has not yet been refreshed.