Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Nine returning starters and Caden Creel support another title run, while replacing the lead rushing production lowers the offensive ceiling.
MPR #103Projected Wins #25Conference USA MPR #3Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-9.1National #103
Projected Wins8.41National #25
Schedule Strength#130National SOS rank
Projected Offense32.3Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense24.1Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+8.2Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-9.06 → -9.09-0.03 MPR
Rank#102 → #103-1 spots
Projected Wins8.43 → 8.41Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Week 8 bye. The joint season fit moves power -0.0 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest Jacksonville State news.
Publisher headlines · auto-updating
Loading team headlines…
Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
5
6
7
8
9
10
The gold bar is the current mode (9 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total7.5
Preseason Effective Market7.36
Current Win-Total Gap+1.05
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -9.09 = OFF 25.30 − DEF 31.80 + ST -0.50 + legacy residual -1.85 + season adjustment -0.24. Sigma 2.33.
