Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Sagapolutele, a top-three ACC portal class and improved defensive talent create upside, but a first-year staff and multiple cross-country trips widen the range.
MPR #65Projected Wins #102ACC MPR #15Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating0.5National #65
Projected Wins4.81National #102
Schedule Strength#57National SOS rank
Projected Offense25.9Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense27.7Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-1.8Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR1.58 → 0.50-1.08 MPR
Rank#64 → #65-1 spots
Projected Wins5.15 → 4.81Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to SMU 20–59. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -1.1 points; unit inputs are retained.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
3
4
5
6
7
The gold bar is the current mode (5 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total6.5
Preseason Effective Market6.18
Current Win-Total Gap-1.37
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 0.50 = OFF 29.40 − DEF 26.30 + ST -0.30 + legacy residual -0.30 + season adjustment -2.00. Sigma 2.93.
