Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: The defense remains championship-caliber, while Christopher Vizzina's limited starting experience and a difficult nonconference schedule lower the median.
MPR #32Projected Wins #58ACC MPR #4Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating10.1National #32
Projected Wins6.95National #58
Schedule Strength#37National SOS rank
Projected Offense25.8Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense22.2Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+3.6Projected per game
Week 3 Final Context · Frozen Sep 17QB Christopher Vizzina is week-to-week; Tait Reynolds is expected to start against North Carolina.
Week 3 game-specific adjustment remains applied; current MPR is unchanged. No further review is scheduled.
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR10.86 → 10.13-0.74 MPR
Rank#30 → #32-2 spots
Projected Wins7.67 → 6.95Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to Virginia Tech 16–20. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -0.7 points; unit inputs are retained.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
4
5
6
7
8
9
The gold bar is the current mode (7 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total7.5
Preseason Effective Market7.72
Current Win-Total Gap-0.77
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 10.13 = OFF 27.30 − DEF 17.35 + ST 0.30 + legacy residual -0.45 + season adjustment 0.33. Sigma 3.13.
