Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: LaNorris Sellers provides upside, but the model remains cautious until offensive-line protection materially improves.
MPR #25Projected Wins #78SEC MPR #11Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating12.4National #25
Projected Wins6.13National #78
Schedule Strength#9National SOS rank
Projected Offense23.7Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense26.7Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-3.0Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR11.79 → 12.38+0.59 MPR
Rank#27 → #25+2 spots
Projected Wins5.47 → 6.13Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat Tennessee 27–24. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +0.6 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest South Carolina news.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
4
5
6
7
8
9
The gold bar is the current mode (6 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total6.5
Preseason Effective Market6.33
Current Win-Total Gap-0.19
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 12.38 = OFF 29.95 − DEF 19.25 + ST 0.65 + legacy residual 0.05 + season adjustment 0.98. Sigma 1.91.
