Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: The supporting cast and Josh Heupel help, but a true-freshman projected quarterback creates one of the SEC's largest uncertainty bands.
MPR #13Projected Wins #29SEC MPR #7Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating17.5National #13
Projected Wins8.22National #29
Schedule Strength#12National SOS rank
Projected Offense29.4Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense27.1Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+2.3Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR18.19 → 17.47-0.73 MPR
Rank#13 → #13+0 spots
Projected Wins8.87 → 8.22Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to South Carolina 24–27. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -0.7 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
6
7
8
9
10
The gold bar is the current mode (8 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total7.5
Preseason Effective Market7.46
Current Win-Total Gap+0.76
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 17.47 = OFF 38.15 − DEF 22.40 + ST 0.30 + legacy residual 0.25 + season adjustment 1.17. Sigma 2.36.
