Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Dru DeShields and seven returning offensive starters preserve last year's improvement, but defensive depth and a difficult nonconference schedule cap the ceiling.
MPR #127Projected Wins #111MAC MPR #9Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-20.4National #127
Projected Wins4.46National #111
Schedule Strength#102National SOS rank
Projected Offense21.8Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense27.3Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-5.5Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-21.43 → -20.35+1.08 MPR
Rank#129 → #127+2 spots
Projected Wins3.91 → 4.46Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat Akron 35–20. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +1.1 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
3
4
5
6
7
The gold bar is the current mode (4 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total3.5
Preseason Effective Market3.46
Current Win-Total Gap+1.00
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -20.35 = OFF 16.10 − DEF 35.40 + ST -0.50 + legacy residual 0.10 + season adjustment -0.65. Sigma 2.61.
