Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Davis Warren and ten returning starters provide stability, but a new staff, limited portal volume and repeated eastern travel keep the median low.
MPR #82Projected Wins #107ACC MPR #17Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-3.8National #82
Projected Wins4.70National #107
Schedule Strength#24National SOS rank
Projected Offense17.9Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense32.5Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-14.6Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-5.17 → -3.76+1.41 MPR
Rank#86 → #82+4 spots
Projected Wins3.88 → 4.70Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat NC State 31–28. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +1.4 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
4
5
6
7
8
The gold bar is the current mode (4 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total3.5
Preseason Effective Market3.50
Current Win-Total Gap+1.20
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -3.76 = OFF 23.05 − DEF 24.50 + ST -0.60 + legacy residual 0.75 + season adjustment -2.46. Sigma 2.74.
