Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Caden Pinnick has real upside, yet a new staff, zero returning defensive starters and three Power Four nonconference games create a wide range of outcomes.
MPR #97Projected Wins #130Pac-12 MPR #7Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-7.8National #97
Projected Wins2.70National #130
Schedule Strength#69National SOS rank
Projected Offense22.9Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense25.8Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-2.9Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-7.39 → -7.80-0.41 MPR
Rank#98 → #97+1 spots
Projected Wins2.91 → 2.70Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to Boise State 10–31. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -0.4 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest Washington State news.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
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The gold bar is the current mode (3 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total5.5
Preseason Effective Market5.14
Current Win-Total Gap-2.84
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -7.80 = OFF 19.55 − DEF 25.30 + ST -0.35 + legacy residual -0.15 + season adjustment -1.55. Sigma 3.67.
