Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: McCae Hillstead and nine returning starters provide continuity, but the defense and a difficult nonconference schedule constrain the full-season ceiling.
MPR #91Projected Wins #121Pac-12 MPR #6Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-6.5National #91
Projected Wins3.93National #121
Schedule Strength#70National SOS rank
Projected Offense23.1Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense27.8Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-4.7Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-6.58 → -6.51+0.07 MPR
Rank#91 → #91+0 spots
Projected Wins4.28 → 3.93Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to Texas State 17–20. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +0.1 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest Utah State news.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
2
3
4
5
6
7
The gold bar is the current mode (4 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total5.5
Preseason Effective Market4.92
Current Win-Total Gap-1.15
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -6.51 = OFF 23.75 − DEF 30.45 + ST -0.50 + legacy residual 0.50 + season adjustment 0.19. Sigma 3.26.
