Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Goose Crowder and a strong defensive baseline make Troy the West favorite, although only five starters return and snapback is below 50%.
MPR #99Projected Wins #95Sun Belt MPR #5Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-8.4National #99
Projected Wins5.26National #95
Schedule Strength#118National SOS rank
Projected Offense26.0Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense28.1Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-2.0Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-7.18 → -8.36-1.17 MPR
Rank#95 → #99-4 spots
Projected Wins6.30 → 5.26Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to UL Monroe 14–21. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -1.2 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest Troy news.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
3
4
5
6
7
8
The gold bar is the current mode (5 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total6.5
Preseason Effective Market6.72
Current Win-Total Gap-1.46
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -8.36 = OFF 23.70 − DEF 29.35 + ST 0.25 + legacy residual 0.20 + season adjustment -3.16. Sigma 3.08.
