Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Blake Baker's return and balanced continuity support a stable first Sun Belt season, with road trips to both Georgia Southern and South Alabama limiting the ceiling.
MPR #87Projected Wins #32Sun Belt MPR #2Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-5.6National #87
Projected Wins8.16National #32
Schedule Strength#97National SOS rank
Projected Offense30.2Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense24.3Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+5.8Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-6.75 → -5.56+1.19 MPR
Rank#93 → #87+6 spots
Projected Wins7.58 → 8.16Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat Old Dominion 26–0. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +1.2 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest Louisiana Tech news.
Publisher headlines · auto-updating
Loading team headlines…
Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
5
6
7
8
9
10
The gold bar is the current mode (8 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total5.5
Preseason Effective Market5.84
Current Win-Total Gap+2.31
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -5.56 = OFF 22.50 − DEF 30.40 + ST 0.00 + legacy residual 0.10 + season adjustment 2.24. Sigma 2.57.
