Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Eleven returning starters and Demond Williams provide offensive continuity, though the portal class is modest and the schedule is demanding.
MPR #26Projected Wins #80Big Ten MPR #9Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating11.8National #26
Projected Wins6.05National #80
Schedule Strength#30National SOS rank
Projected Offense23.2Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense27.0Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-3.9Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR11.66 → 11.84+0.18 MPR
Rank#29 → #26+3 spots
Projected Wins5.99 → 6.05Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Week 8 bye. The joint season fit moves power +0.2 points; unit inputs are retained.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
4
5
6
7
8
9
The gold bar is the current mode (6 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total7.5
Preseason Effective Market7.86
Current Win-Total Gap-1.81
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 11.84 = OFF 31.51 − DEF 17.43 + ST -0.19 + legacy residual -0.45 + season adjustment -1.61. Sigma 2.15.
