Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Pop Watson and a strong transfer haul improve the talent base, but the conference's lowest power baseline and offensive-line uncertainty keep the projection modest.
MPR #136Projected Wins #101MAC MPR #12Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-26.9National #136
Projected Wins5.16National #101
Schedule Strength#138National SOS rank
Projected Offense18.8Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense28.4Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-9.7Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-26.77 → -26.87-0.10 MPR
Rank#136 → #136+0 spots
Projected Wins5.18 → 5.16Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to UConn 16–35. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -0.1 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest Massachusetts news.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
4
5
6
7
8
The gold bar is the current mode (5 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total2.5
Preseason Effective Market2.77
Current Win-Total Gap+2.39
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -26.87 = OFF 11.45 − DEF 38.50 + ST -0.15 + legacy residual 0.15 + season adjustment 0.18. Sigma 3.03.
