Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Six offensive starters, stable coaching and home dates with Miami and Western Michigan support contention, though quarterback consistency remains unresolved.
MPR #117Projected Wins #89MAC MPR #6Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-12.5National #117
Projected Wins5.68National #89
Schedule Strength#119National SOS rank
Projected Offense27.5Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense20.0Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+7.5Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-12.78 → -12.47+0.31 MPR
Rank#116 → #117-1 spots
Projected Wins6.05 → 5.68Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to Miami (OH) 27–28. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +0.3 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
3
4
5
6
7
The gold bar is the current mode (6 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total6.5
Preseason Effective Market6.32
Current Win-Total Gap-0.64
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -12.47 = OFF 16.85 − DEF 30.20 + ST 0.05 + legacy residual -0.25 + season adjustment 1.08. Sigma 3.01.
