2026 MATRIXWEEK 1138 FBS TEAMS91 GAMESCOLLEGE FOOTBALL DECODEDMODEL + MARKET + CONTEXT
GameDay Matrix
Matrix Wire / Deep Dive
How to Read the Matrix

MPR is strength. Projected Wins is the path.

One number answers how good a team is. The other asks what record that strength should earn against its actual schedule.

MPRNeutral-field strength
Schedule LayerOpponent + venue + timing
Projected WinsStrength through schedule
Update RuleEvidence must clear the gate

MPR: how good is the team?

Matrix Power Rating is the neutral-field strength layer. It is designed to let teams be compared before their specific schedule is applied.

Apply the schedule

Opponent strength, venue and timing change the season path. A highly rated team can still face a difficult projected record if the schedule is unusually demanding.

Projected Wins: what record should it earn?

Projected Wins combines strength with the schedule layer. That is why MPR rank and projected-wins rank do not need to match.

Why the separation matters

Keeping strength separate from path makes model changes easier to understand. A team can improve without its schedule becoming easier, and a projected-win change can be traced back to either a strength update or the path around it.