Current MPR-2.5
MPR Rank#81
Applied Change-2.75
Week 1 TreatmentNo additional penalty
The adjustment
The quarterback news arrived after the original Phase I certification, so New Mexico received a post-Phase-I correction before the Week 1 projection layer was locked. Current MPR already reflects the availability shock.
The guardrail
Personnel context can influence a game, but GameDay Matrix avoids stacking the same information twice. Once the quarterback loss entered MPR, the Week 1 game treatment remained neutral unless new replacement-quarterback evidence justified a separate game-level modifier.
What we watch next
The next useful information is not that the starter remains unavailable; that is already known. The model now cares about the replacement plan, execution quality and whether the offense stabilizes enough to change the current strength estimate.